What to expect from Permatang Pauh tomorrow?

What can you expect from tomorrow’s poll result?

What would be the indicator?

Make no mistake. It is not so much the absolute size of the winning margin (13,338 for Wan Azizah on March 8) as many people (including myself in media interviews or writings earlier) have suggested.

Absolute size of the winning margin is not telling because it is affected by the turnout.

It’s the relative size of the margin. On March 8, PKR won 64.16% of total valid votes, beating BN which took 35.84% by a margin of 28.31%.

Here’s my “score guide”.

If tomorrow Anwar enjoys >60% support but short of Kak Wan’s record, then he merely maintains his support. PASS. UMNO leaders will feel very relieved.

If he wins but gets below that, NEAR PASS. UMNO leaders can celebrate.

If he exceeds 64% but short of 70%, DISTINCTION. Pressure mounts on Abdullah and Najib.

Anything beyond 70%, HIGH DISTINCTION. UMNO parliamentarians start jumping.

But there can be more than one scenario that spells disasters for UMNO.

In Malaysia, the BN and the opposition are commonly estimated to enjoy 30% base support each, with 40% “middle ground” or “swing” voters up for grab.

Most people have focused their attention on the Malay bloc which constitutes 69.4% of the electorate and for obvious reason.

If Anwar captures most of the “40%” middle-ground Malay voters on top of the “30%”, UMNO is in deep shits. If Anwar eats into UMNO’s base, then UMNO politicians will flock into PKR to save their own political future.

Since the non-Malays are perceived as stronger supporters of Anwar, if the Malay support exceeds 70%, Anwar will likely get at least somewhere 75% of votes. And the Malaysian politics shall evolve by every hour.

What most analysts (likely including UMNO strategists) and party workers have ignored is the pivotality of the Chinese sector.

While MIC has had much of its base swept away in the political tsunami, the same cannot be said of MCA and Gerakan. In many places, these two parties still enjoy the support of three Chinese amongst every ten.

In Permatang Pauh, this is widely seen – including by some PR workers – as the limit. Anwar is expected to capture the middle ground but not eat into the 30% of BN’s Chinese base.

What if the unthinkable happens? What if the “BABI” UMNO plays up in Malay kampung turns back to haunt BN in the Chinese suburb? What if BN gets less than 10% of the Chinese vote?

My guess is that MCA and Gerakan will be forced to stand up against UMNO, demanding real political change, or risking their elimination by next elections.

It will then be a tough choice for UMNO. Conceding to the non-Malays’ demand for change would be a big loss of face after playing up the Malay sentiment. But defending the “BABI-bashing” antics is like pushing MCA and Gerakan’s 17 parliamentarians to jump ship.

Like the unexpected severity of Hindu temple demolition which effectively demolishes MIC, UMNO may eventually regret “membabikan” the campaign to make MCA and Gerakan the latest victims of a smaller-scale tsunami.

But would even the 30% BN’s Chinese base vote be furious for being insult as swines? That’s the question worth waiting for tomorrow night besides the main battle in the Malay heartland.

7 responses to “What to expect from Permatang Pauh tomorrow?

  1. To All the Pakatan Rakyat supporters & volunteers,

    Pls be 100% alert on tomorrow whole day long voting process and especially the transfer of votes from polling center to the Dewan for counting. We should consider the possibility of someone who may swap the ballot boxes.
    Therefore all kind of preventive action need to be carry out in all polling station.
    Besides, pls come out with the counter measure for ensuring there is a smooth of electricity supply and communication system.
    There are more dirty tricks which might happen anytime.

    PeoplePower

  2. It’s not just a Penang holiday but a ‘Destiny Day’
    For all eligible voters to have their final say
    Who will be ‘fated’ in this pivotal seat to stay
    But make sure no legitimate voting papers go astray

    (C) Samuel Goh Kim Eng – 250808
    http://MotivationInMotion.blogspot.com
    Mon. 25th Aug. 2008.

  3. Meaning the Malay Political wizz are smart?
    to deny captures of non-malays in Penang
    when Anwar is so powerful to over-run DAp as Penang CM?..at least if he failed to be PM?

    what is the indonesia-factor
    that would not allow anwar to hike
    over sarawak issue
    when all are under pressure of Green pact of Australia and World Tropical congress that wants exposure on deforestation by the British investors?

    what happen?

    Should anwar a hike up
    will these populous take action to further economic-block campaigns?

    no one want to be charged by the World congress?doesn’t they? when the culprit are among themselves? because london are socialist backed, while Jakarta depending on Singapore? and LKYew is depending on Mahathir and sounded that to prosecute anyone who slander the government as corrupt?

    Has Abdullah made wrong political move at international level? as we had warned them since 2000, during Mahathir?

    Minimum, LGE and LKS has to surrender CM post to DSAI as new CM, buy heart of the Malay, otherwise, next GE 13, Anwar gone again? unless there is another power arise in toll with PR – the Hyper-Ultra-Malay?

    How do you view the implications of the next economic agenda of this nation, if throughout the next 4 years, or even, until the death of the leader, will this economic problem solved?

    hmmm..you get what I mean?

    Suggestion | start selling your big cars or second home, and start re-kindle your own nett-nett income source setting..no one will they help you?

  4. Malaysiakini Bloggers Headlines on 27 August 2008.

    “Man of Honour” won Landslide Victory in P44 Permatang Pauh!

    Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka! Merdeka!

    A defining moment in Malaysian History was achieved when DSAI won the by-election in Permatang Pauh yesterday with a landslide victory over his opponent just 3 days prior to Parliament presenting it’s 2009 Budget (29 August 2008) and 5 days prior to Malaysians celebrating it’s 51st Anniversary of Merdeka (Liberty Day) on 31st August 2008.

    Sit tight for the next episode on 29 August 2008, the preview to 16 September 2008 when Malaysia celebrates “Freedom Day”.

    More Prophesies at Nostradamus Quatrains on “Wag the Dog” and Nostradamus Quatrains on Malaysia.

    http://patek1472.wordpress.com

  5. Anonymous said…

    Beware & take every possible precautions that Flip Flop BN is already running out of ideas except apart from their Swearing Circus, they will use every dirty tricks under the sun, like faking PKR supporters with imposters to commit crimes in order to tarnish PKR image, spin more lies in the MSM they controlled, probably use the biased Election Commission to switch real Ballot Boxes with pre-filled fake Ballot Boxes & shamelessly to bribe old ladies with welfare money, all elderly Voters take the money, you deserve them, but vote in Anwar for a new Government come September 16, 2008 for a new Malaysia.

    Petrol price cut at the last minutes of Permatang Puah By-Election is now the very sign of Desperation of the Flip Flop PeeM’s Wrong Doing:=KJ Flip Flop’s SIL Advisor of the Sinking Titanic BN PeeM’s last minutes Flop Flop Fuel Price Cut in great desperation to fish some votes from the present fiasco of their failed campaign in Permatang Pauh

    As usual the Flip-Flop and Flip-Flop again and again in desperation to cling on to Power, throw out the rotten Flip-Flop Tyranny come Sept 16, 2008

    Sink the titanic BN once and for all come Sept 16, 2008 in a coup de grace

    Permatang Pauh Voters it is your solemn duty as the foremost agent of change to send the Dirty & Corrupted BN to the bottom of the Ocean, & cleanse Malaysia of the Flip Flop rotten problem once and for all.

  6. Pingback: It’s now or never for Permatang Pauh « * SUSAN LOONE’s blog *

  7. hi chin huat

    good analysis. umno has no proper campaign theme, no visionary policies to address the inflation faced by the people. Whereas we have heard a clear and consistent message from DSAI. He is the leader we need to progress the country. I wish your prediction would come true, i mean the 75% poll. Barring vote rigging, but i think with every eye watching, it would be an uphill task for BN.

    best regards

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