On Elections: How close was Malaysia from regime change? (correction)

The answer: only 56,822 votes.

That was what the opposition needed to bag thirty more seats and form the government with exactly a simple majority. The average margin for the 30 most marginal seats was only 1,893 votes. In other words, the opposition only needs to win 1,894 votes in average to unseat BN.

Here’s the list of the 30 seats that saved BN on March 8th:

 

Code

Constituency

State

Top challengers

Margin (Majority)

Margin,

% of Total Valid Votes

P208

Sarikei

Sarawak

DAP

51

0.23%

P186

Sandakan

Sabah

DAP

176

0.91%

P9

Alor Setar

Kedah

PKR

184

0.45%

P74

Lumut

Perak

PKR

298

0.58%

P3

Arau

Perlis

PAS

300

0.92%

P36

Kuala Terengganu

Terengganu

PAS

628

0.96%

P221

Limbang

Sarawak

PKR

676

5.55%

P92

Sabak Bernam

Selangor

PKR

1,335

5.86%

P35

Kuala Nerus

Terengganu

PAS

1,341

2.60%

P67

Kuala Kangsar

Perak

PAS

1,458

7.29%

P203

Lubok Antu

Sarawak

Ind

1,610

13.50%

P61

Padang Rengas

Perak

PKR

1,749

9.76%

P137

Bukit Katil

Melaka

PKR

1,758

2.92%

P56

Larut

Perak

PAS

1,911

6.40%

P81

Jerantut

Pahang

PAS

1,946

5.24%

P216

Hulu Rajang

Sarawak

Ind

2,164

19.64%

P5

Jerlun

Kedah

PAS

2,205

6.02%

P88

Temerloh

Pahang

PKR

2,441

6.05%

P73

Pasir Salak

Perak

PKR

2,688

8.62%

P75

Bagan Datok

Perak

PKR

2,692

11.44%

P70

Kampar

Perak

DAP

2,697

7.18%

P125

Putrajaya

FT Putrajaya

PAS

2,734

51.18%

P80

Raub

Pahang

DAP

2,752

8.24%

P69

Parit

Perak

PAS

2,873

13.10%

P100

Pandan

Selangor

PKR

2,961

6.23%

P140

Segamat

Johor

DAP

2,991

10.37%

P72

Tapah

Perak

PKR

3,020

9.25%

P169

Kota Belud

Sabah

PKR

3,020

12.01%

P174

Penampang

Sabah

PKR

3,063

12.33%

P196

Stampin

Sarawak

DAP

3,070

7.13%

Measured in proportion of valid votes, BN’s margin was lower than 20% in 57 seats, and below 10% in 25 of them.

In other words, had 10% more of the voters across all constituencies deserted BN for the strongest opposition candidates, BN would then be left with 83 seats while the opposition would form the new government with 139 seats, just nine seats short of a two-third majority.

* I apologized for posting an incomplete table and plucking some wrong figures in the wee hours this morning.

 

2 responses to “On Elections: How close was Malaysia from regime change? (correction)

  1. Questions
    1. WHY Oppositions knowing dam well that without 1/2 of the Parliament seats, they can actually do little to plug the loopholes and be able to recover. Yet they don’t even dare to say 1/2 should be the target for any possible change?
    Running even the Risk that they will not be able to deliver their promises? And, therefore, will have difficult time in convincing the Voters for GE13.
    2. Are they lacking of Confidence of simple majority? Or,
    3. Are they not ready to take over because of less faith of coalition or manpower?
    4. Any Statistic on how Postal Votes been affecting the result of GE12?
    5. Any report and action on Phantom Voters?

    Without 4 & 5, it will be hard to ask Voters or People to pay attention to Postal Votes and Phantom Votes in GE13!!

    6. How many been subjected to recount?
    7. Are those Electoral Roll for the Respective Constituency be opened for inspection for possible Phantom Votes? Such that this could be one of the “Auditing” procedures available?

    When Bersih is calling for RCEC, some points from this GE12 must be provided as Basis.
    However, should the Action be taken by the Oppositions Coalitions rather than Political Campaign by Rakyats?
    If the “victory” of GE12 for the Oppositions cannot even take up an important “Appeal” or “Petition” for the Rakyats, it will throw the question of WHY to elect the Opposition with so many Seats!!

  2. Pingback: Malaysian Politics » Blog Archive » PM : I will not resign because we have a big mandate

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