On Elections: Where’s Malaysia’s Magnificent One Third? (II)

If you really want to deny BN its parliamentary two-thirds, you must know how the system works. (Read Part I here.)

First thing first, an effective one-third means 75 seats (actually74 seats plus one, otherwise BN will still retain its exact two-third) because next parliament will have 222 seats in total.

Secondly, efforts and resources should be focused on the 75 most winnable seats for non-BN candidates. Your goal is to help the Opposition (widely-defined here to include independent candidates) to win as many as seats as possible, not to win as many votes as possible within those winnable seats or hopeless seats. The battle is at the marginals.

The first-past-the-post (FPTP) system rewards parties that can distribute its voters optimally. Technically speaking, a party only needs 50% plus one vote to take a constituency. In a straight fight, winning anything less than that means all the votes would be wasted. On the other end, over concentration of voters are inefficient because the extra votes (or the resources to call out these votes), if can be transferred, may deliver extra seats.

While of course no parties would take risk to go for a wafer-thin victory of 50% plus one vote, to my mind, working for a vote gain greater than 60% (which means 20% margin in a straight fight) within a constituency is extravagant.

On the other hand, if BN can hope to win 70% of votes, the chances that extra effort can upset the ruling coalition is almost zero. Throwing in resources for such hopeless seats is morally admirable but strategically irrational. (Putting up a tough fight in unwinnable seats is strategically justifiable if this may force the opponents to hold back their resources from campaigning in more winnable seats. This threat is unlikely to be credible to opponents with more than 70% of popular support.)

So, how do we choose the 75 seats to work on? Which are the 75 most hopeful seats? The actual distribution of support may depend on many factors including the candidates and local issues.

For a broad-brush analysis, we may look at the outcomes in past elections as a reference. It is rare that all voters will change from one end to another, says, to turn a UMNO stronghold into a PAS stronghold or vice versa.

More likely, if we expect some swings away from party A nationwide, then the impact felt at constituency level varies with its original strength: some party A’s strongholds will still return its candidates with smaller margins, some party A’s marginal seats will change hand, and finally some of its opponents’ strongholds will return them with greater margins.

Hence, an educated guess of the top 75 most winnable seats for the Opposition would be those they won the highest vote shares in 2004. Table 1 lists all of them. All Sarawak constituencies are excluded because the state has gone through its own constituency redelineation since 2004. With the constituency boundaries changed, any speculation based on previous results will not be accurate.

(Similarly, 2004 results will not be reliable if there have been en mass transfer of voters, like what happened in Ipoh Barat. Transfer of voters and implantation of phantoms are in fact alternatives to gerrymandering.)

Table 1 The 75 Most Winnable Seats for the Opposition Outside Sarawak

Based on 2004 Outcome (With Ethnic Composition for West Malaysian Seats)

 

No.	Code	Constituency	State	Winner	1st Runner-Up	BN vote /TVV	Malay	Chinese	Indians & Other
1	P123	Cheras	FT, KL	DAP	BN-MCA	37.18%	9.10%	83.40%	7.50%
2	P122	Seputeh	FT, KL	DAP	BN-MCA	37.95%	4.80%	89.20%	6.00%
3	P064	Ipoh Timor	Perak	DAP	BN-MCA	39.80%	8.80%	85.60%	5.60%
4	P045	Bukit Mertajam	Penang	DAP	BN-MCA	40.24%	18.50%	72.80%	8.70%
5	P179	Ranau	Sabah	BN-UPKO	Ind.	40.52%
6	P022	Pasir Mas	Kelantan	PAS	BN-UMNO	40.69%	95.80%	3.80%	0.40%
7	P020	Pengkalan Chepa	Kelantan	PAS	BN-UMNO	41.12%	97.40%	2.10%	0.50%
8	P066	Batu Gajah	Perak	DAP	BN-MCA	41.91%	10.00%	79.00%	11.00%
9	P024	Kubang Kerian	Kelantan	PAS	BN-UMNO	42.44%	97.90%	1.70%	0.40%
10	P049	Tanjong	Penang	DAP	BN-Gerakan	44.59%	4.80%	86.30%	8.90%
11	P186	Sandakan	Sabah	Ind.	BN-LDP	44.88%
12	P043	Bagan	Penang	DAP	BN-MCA	45.75%	15.00%	70.70%	14.30%
13	P060	Taiping	Perak	BN-PPP	DAP	47.41%	32.30%	52.60%	15.10%
14	P114	Kepong	FT, KL	DAP	BN-Gerakan	47.93%	3.50%	91.00%	5.50%
15	P120	Bukit Bintang	FT, KL	DAP	BN-MCA	48.03%	13.00%	75.80%	11.20%
16	P019	Tumpat	Kelantan	PAS	BN-UMNO	48.32%	91.80%	3.40%	4.80%
17	P051	Bukit Gelugor	Penang	DAP	BN-MCA	48.56%	15.60%	74.40%	10.00%
18	P023	Rantau Panjang	Kelantan	PAS	BN-UMNO	48.75%	97.70%	1.00%	1.30%
19	P044	Permatang Pauh	Penang	Keadilan	BN-UMNO	49.31%	67.60%	26.30%	6.10%
20	P065	Ipoh Barat	Perak	DAP	BN-MCA	49.34%	12.80%	64.10%	23.10%
21	P011	Pendang	Kedah	PAS	BN-UMNO	49.95%	87.50%	6.50%	6.00%
22	P037	Marang	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	50.15%	97.60%	2.10%	0.30%
23	P138	Kota Melaka	Melaka	BN-MCA	DAP	50.18%	30.60%	64.10%	5.30%
24	P029	Machang	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	PAS	50.19%	94.90%	4.60%	0.50%
25	P028	Pasir Puteh	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	PAS	50.44%	97.50%	1.50%	1.00%
26	P013	Sik	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	50.52%	92.40%	2.10%	5.50%
27	P182	Pensiangan	Sabah	BN-PBRS	Ind.	51.05%
28	P036	Kuala Terengganu	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	51.61%	87.50%	11.50%	1.00%
29	P025	Bachok	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	PAS	51.74%	98.20%	1.30%	0.50%
30	P021	Kota Bharu	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	Keadilan	51.88%	79.10%	19.10%	1.80%
31	P005	Jerlun	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	52.97%	89.60%	8.60%	1.80%
32	P031	Kuala Krai	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	PAS	53.37%	92.40%	5.50%	2.10%
33	P103	Puchong	Selangor	BN-Gerakan	PAS	53.38%	46.70%	36.40%	16.90%
34	P016	Baling	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	53.46%	86.90%	6.30%	6.80%
35	P046	Batu Kawan	Penang	BN-Gerakan	Keadilan	53.85%	20.50%	56.30%	23.20%
36	P026	Ketereh	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	Keadilan	53.89%	96.70%	2.00%	1.30%
37	P007	Padang Terap	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	53.97%	91.90%	1.70%	6.40%
38	P027	Tanah Merah	Kelantan	BN-UMNO	Keadilan	54.26%	93.30%	4.90%	1.80%
39	P035	Kuala Nerus	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	54.48%	98.90%	0.70%	0.40%
40	P130	Rasah	Negeri Sembilan	BN-MCA	DAP	55.02%	26.50%	51.80%	21.70%
41	P039	Dungun	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	55.11%	94.80%	4.60%	0.60%
42	P003	Arau	Perlis	BN-UMNO	PAS	55.15%	87.20%	8.60%	4.20%
43	P111	Kota Raja	Selangor	BN-MIC	PAS	55.25%	50.40%	21.30%	28.30%
44	P076	Telok Intan	Perak	BN-Gerakan	DAP	55.78%	34.70%	45.10%	20.20%
45	P167	Kudat	Sabah	BN-UMNO	Ind.	56.61%
46	P057	Parit Buntar	Perak	BN-UMNO	PAS	56.91%	66.90%	28.00%	5.10%
47	P008	Pokok Sena	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	57.00%	78.20%	18.70%	3.10%
48	P010	Kuala Kedah	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	58.08%	76.90%	21.20%	1.90%
49	P058	Bagan Serai	Perak	BN-UMNO	PAS	58.25%	72.80%	15.80%	11.40%
50	P090	Bera	Pahang	BN-UMNO	PAS	58.26%	57.60%	35.20%	7.20%
51	P068	Beruas	Perak	BN-Gerakan	DAP	58.40%	32.10%	54.60%	13.30%
52	P050	Jelutong	Penang	BN-Gerakan	DAP	58.79%	19.60%	67.90%	12.50%
53	P181	Tenom	Sabah	BN-UMNO	Ind.	58.80%
54	P034	Setiu	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	58.88%	99.20%	0.50%	0.30%
55	P168	Kota Marudu	Sabah	BN-PBS	Ind.	59.00%
56	P047	Nibong Tebal	Penang	BN-UMNO	Keadilan	59.49%	43.60%	40.50%	15.90%
57	P033	Besut	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	59.73%	97.50%	1.90%	0.60%
58	P038	Hulu Terengganu	Terengganu	BN-UMNO	PAS	59.73%	98.90%	0.70%	0.40%
59	P102	Serdang	Selangor	BN-MCA	DAP	59.77%	34.40%	54.40%	11.20%
60	P098	Gombak	Selangor	BN-UMNO	PAS	59.93%	74.30%	14.00%	11.70%
61	P109	Kapar	Selangor	BN-MIC	Keadilan	59.93%	49.30%	37.60%	13.10%
62	P012	Jerai	Kedah	BN-UMNO	PAS	60.43%	77.40%	16.00%	6.60%
63	P018	Kulim-Bandar Baru	Kedah	BN-UMNO	Keadilan	60.77%	66.70%	21.40%	11.90%
64	P069	Parit	Perak	BN-UMNO	PAS	61.22%	91.40%	3.70%	4.90%
65	P048	Bukit Bendera	Penang	BN-Gerakan	DAP	61.69%	13.80%	74.00%	12.20%
66	P059	Bukit Gantang	Perak	BN-Gerakan	PAS	61.79%	62.60%	27.60%	9.80%
67	P092	Sabak Bernam	Selangor	BN-UMNO	Keadilan	61.99%	79.90%	14.40%	5.70%
68	P062	Sungai Siput	Perak	BN-MIC	Keadilan	62.19%	31.40%	41.40%	27.20%
69	P017	Padang Serai	Kedah	BN-MCA	Keadilan	62.22%	52.60%	24.40%	23.00%
70	P081	Jerantut	Pahang	BN-UMNO	PAS	62.35%	80.30%	15.30%	4.40%
71	P056	Larut	Perak	BN-UMNO	PAS	62.46%	86.40%	6.50%	7.10%
72	P115	Batu	FT, KL	BN-Gerakan	Keadilan	62.54%	41.80%	41.10%	17.10%
73	P106	Petaling Jaya Utara	Selangor	BN-MCA	DAP	62.59%	15.20%	76.60%	8.20%
74	P070	Kampar	Perak	BN-MCA	DAP	62.91%	25.50%	63.70%	10.80%
75	P110	Klang	Selangor	BN-MCA	DAP	63.02%	33.10%	47.30%	19.60%

The BN support in these seats ranged from 37.18% in Cheras to 63.03% in Klang. Nineteen of them are already in the Opposition’s hand. (The Opposition’s twentieth seat, held by DAP, is in Sarawak.)

Ninety two percent of these seats are found in eight states: Perak, Kelantan, Kedah, Penang, Selangor, Terengganu, Sabah and FTKL. Nearly half of them were contested by PAS, three tenth by DAP, and one sixth by Keadilan in 2004 (Table 2)

Table 2 The 75 Most Winnable Seats for the Opposition Outside Sarawak

Based on 2004 Outcome, by State and Party Strength

State/FT	PAS (won)	Keadilan (won)	DAP (won)	Ind. (won)	Total (won)	Total Seats in the State
Perlis	1				1	3
Kedah	8 (1)	2			10 (1)	15
Kelantan	9 (5)	3			12 (5)	14
Terengganu	7				7	8
Penang		3 (1)	6 (4)		9 (5)	13
Perak	5	1*	7 (3)		13 (3)	24
Pahang	2				2	14
Selangor	3	2	3		8	22
FTKL		1	4 (4)		5 (4)	11
FT Putra Jaya						1
Negeri Sembilan			1		1	8
Melaka			1		1	6
Johor						26
FT Labuan						1
Sabah				6 (1)	6 (1)	25
Total	35 (6)	12 (1)	22 (11)	6 (1)	75 (19)	191

*The seat, Sungai Siput was run by PSM candidate, only under Keadilan ticket.

To deny BN’s two-third, the Opposition will need to upset BN in 55 seats while keeping the original 19.

It’s an uphill task indeed but not completely impossible. Putting it simplistically, overturning victory in a seat where BN has got 63% support, like Klang at the bottom of this list, needs a net conversion of about 6.5% BN supporters for them to vote for the Opposition. That target means only one out of every ten BN voters in 2004.

To put it alternatively, if only one out of every six Opposition voters in 2004 can “turnover” one BN supporter on his/her own effort, this will be done. (Yes, no typographical error. It is only one out of six Opposition voters, because 6.5% is about one sixth of the Opposition’s 37%.)

If BN supporters are converted to only stay away from the polls, then one out of every five BN voters will need to be converted. If you are targeting non-voters or new voters, then you will need to recruit one new Opposition supporters for every five BN supporters you now.

Political activism is more difficult than just going on your guts feeling, but it is also easier than what most cynics think. The problem lies with too few people having the political will to do their parts.

Are you registered in or living near any of these seats? If you are, do you want to do something for the coming elections? You may get some ideas from People’s Parliament and Citizen Think Tank on improving parliamentary representation. I will blog further on prevention of electoral frauds.

Like what the Transport Ministy says in traffic safety advertisements, you, can make a difference. Do you want it?

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This is my surrogate yellow banana for this week’s yellow Saturday (tomorrow) as I am into my personal retreat. May not have internet access where I will be. Happy Dong Zhi (Winter Solstice) !

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User guide:

Sorry that I cannot find any way to present the tables and charts nicely. One simple solution on your end is to select all, copy and paste it to a word document. You should get the full list without any problem. Thanks.

Facts and Views on Malaysian Elections by Wong Chin Huat

 

On Elections: Same Votes, Different Values

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/26/82/

 

On Elections: A Dummy’s Guide on Poll Rigging

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/25/on-elections-a-dummys-guide-on-poll-rigging/

 

On Elections: Where’s Malaysia’s Magnificent One-Third? (II)

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/21/on-elections-where%e2%80%99s-malaysia%e2%80%99s-magnificent-one-third-ii/

 

On Elections: Where’s Malaysia’s Magnificent One-Third? (I)

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/21/on-elections-where%e2%80%99s-malaysia%e2%80%99s-magnificent-one-third-i/

 

On Elections: Did MIC need Indians?

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/08/on-elections-did-mic-need-indians/

 

On Elections: Splits in UMNO and Opposition Unity (TheSun)

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/08/on-elections-splits-in-umno-and-opposition-unity/

 

On Elections: Splits Watershed Elections of 1969 (TheSun)

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/08/on-elections-watershed-elections-of-1969/

 

On Elections: Weakened Federalism in the New Federation (TheSun)

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/08/on-elections-weakened-federalism-in-the-new-federation/

 

On Elections: Electing the Government  (TheSun)

http://chinhuatw.wordpress.com/2007/12/08/on-elections-electing-the-government/